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Trade Expectancy Analyzer
Plug in your stats and see if you have an edge — win rate, expectancy, profit factor, Kelly criterion, and a visual breakeven map.
Your Trading Stats
Your Edge
Expectancy per Trade
+$60.00
You have an edge
Profit Factor
1.71
Payoff Ratio
1.78
Kelly %
18.8%
Breakeven WR
36.0%
Monthly EV
+$2,240
After Commissions
+$1,920
Breakeven Map — Are you above the line?
The curve = breakeven. Above = profitable. Below = losing money. Your dot = your stats.
100-Trade Monte Carlo (5 simulations)
Why this matters
Win rate alone tells you nothing. 70% win rate with tiny wins and large losses is a losing strategy. Expectancy is the number that actually matters — the average dollar amount you make or lose per trade.
Kelly Criterion
The mathematically optimal risk per trade. Most traders use half Kelly — full Kelly maximizes growth but also volatility.
The Breakeven Map
Your dot must be above the curve to be profitable. The further above, the stronger your edge. Near the line? Commissions might push you under.
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